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Rob Has a Blogger: How the Survivor Woo Girls Blew It

Kat Edorsson and Alicia Rosa are part of the Struggling Women's tribe on Survivor: One world

Survivor! Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!! (photo courtesy of CBS)

Richie Glanzer will be writing a blog all season long for Rob Has a Website as we continue to cover “Survivor: One World” from every conceivable angle. Click Here to Read more About Rich

So back in “The Day,” I worked at AAA. “The Day” was 1998. Much like today, all my co-workers were female. And for whatever their flawed reasons were, they thought I was a little cocky and chauvinistic.

So this girl, Jen, started talking about Buffy the Vampire Slayer and she said to me, “Buffy can kick your ass.”

I replied, “You’re right because it would be in the script. But if Sarah Michelle Gellar and I ever got into a boxing match, she’d be floored in the first minute.”

And I proved my point when Gellar not only ignored my multiple attempts to box her, but put a restraining order on me.
Okay, I jest about the attempts to fight as well as the restraining order, but I ask my loyal followers again, allow me to be politically incorrect.

While there are exceptions to every rule, men are stronger than women. Men are more athletic than women. Survivor typically doesn’t cast too many exceptions in one season and this season appears to be a typical Survivor season.
Which makes me ask Jeff Probst and Mark Burnett, “what were you thinking having men vs. women?”

The question is rhetorical because I think I know the answer; they were thinking it would make riveting television. And despite the current shutout, I think we are getting it. For now.

For me, Survivor is rarely this interesting, this early. But this week we got a ton of good TV. Colton committed treason again, the girls imploded, Probst quoted the Spice Girls, and Matt threw a “little person” into the sea.

The current domination by the men is not at all surprising.  I’ve watched many shows employ the Battle of the Sexes and there’s always one constant. Men get along better with men than women get along with women. Which is why I can’t understand why Colton keeps going over to the women’s side. I mean, he doesn’t even like boobies.

While the show is entertaining now, if the girls don’t win an immunity soon, it may get all sorts of boring. And their odds deplete after each elimination, because not only did they vote off one of their strong, but the men will probably get to sit out two of their weak. This means instead of going against four Frat Boys, four Misfits, and one Colton, they will be going against four Frat Boys and a combination of only three from the Misfits/Colton alliance.

Robin with the Woo Girls on How I Met Your Mother

Robin with the Woo Girls on "How I Met Your Mother"

So is all hope lost for the girls? As a team, it’s fading fast. As individuals, there will be some survivors (pun was a little intended but not as much as you think.) I think at least a few of the Woo Girls will make a deep run.

Of course I’m stealing the Woo Girls from a great episode of the CBS show, “How I Met Your Mother”, when Robin was hanging out with a bunch of girls who would scream, “Wooooooo!!!” at everything. I call Sabrina, Chelsea, Alicia, Kim and Kat the Woo Girls, because much like their compatriots on HIMYM, they are going to regret their decision in the morning.

Last week I admonished Matt for telling us how Survivor “always” works, by the strong getting rid of the weak early. I scoffed at his opinion because I felt the men were stronger than the women and they don’t need the maximum physical strength to defeat the women. Well, it’s the opposite for the women tribe. They should have taken a page out of Matt’s playbook and eliminated the weakest person who wasn’t in their alliance. And that’s Christina. Now obviously Kat is excluded because Nina was gunning for her, but right now, you need to not only have your best athletes, but you need strong competitors. And despite her grumpy personality, Nina does not come across as the weakest link. And for the record, neither does Kat.

Sure the youngest Woo Girl is impetuous, but her spirits are high. Sabrina told her in front of her tribemates, “You’re very much a rah-rah girl and that’s great and we need that.” While I’m quite sure Sabrina didn’t mean a word of the “we need that” part, she should. Sabrina went all Billy Beane/sabremetrics on Kat telling her, “But at the end of the day logic and strategy trumps rah-rah. Rah-rah a little bit on the inside, and then listen for strategy.”

While I love her plethora of leadership skills, and her obvious athletic mindset, I’m holding off on the marriage proposal because down 3-0 in challenges, 2-0 in immunity and with no tarp and rain a comin’, the girls have a chance to implode. Someone who is fun, can make them laugh and provides some rah-rah will be needed. I agree Kat needs to listen to strategy more, but if she keeps up her enthusiasm, that can help them get them a W. So smart move by the Woo Girls in keeping their alliance at five, but they should have gotten rid of Christina, not Nina. Nina is more athletic than Christina and saving her would have made her less grumpy.

Which brings us to award time. Who will be my hero, and who will get my heel? And remember, the hero award is given to the person who set themselves up nicely, and the heel is someone who missed a golden opportunity to do the same.

Richie’s Hero:

It’s not often that I’m going to give my prestigious hero award to the person who commits treason on his tribe two weeks in a row, annoys the heck out of the competing tribe so much so that they kick him out, throws a personal pity party for himself and then commits one of the biggest Survivor Sins that everyone does, and shows off his Hidden Immunity Idol.
But damn it Colton, you are on another freaking level. The Laziest Player to ever play Survivor decided to show off his Idol and then proclaim, “I’m on board with the most random group of people in the entire world. And until I can get with the girls I have to associate myself with these misfits. They can call themselves the Misfits Alliance, I’ll just be their King. I mean this is my world. They should just call this Survivor Colton’s World.”

The crazy part? He’s not even a little bit delusional. Jonas may have well dropped to one knee ala Coach to Russell when he said, “So Colton went from the first guy voted out to now the ringleader. And I mean I knew the kid was a freak of nature…the kid is ridiculously smart.”

Brilliant actually.

The idol, if used perfectly, won’t save you just one week, it will save yourself multiple weeks. And though I normally don’t think you should display it publicly till the end, Colton made sure the Misfits realized he wasn’t on the chopping block, so don’t vote for him. Brilliant. Now somebody make him that damn sandwich.

But I can’t give the Hero if I don’t give the Heel. To be honest, every single girl should be eligible for not going to Colton, “You could hang out with us, if you throw the next challenge.” I’m telling you, it would have freaking worked. Colton, can you throw me another tweet and let my doubters know that I am right?

But the one most deserving of…

Richie’s Heel:

Chelsea, you had this game. It was yours. And if you don’t make it to the merge, you only have yourself to blame. Rob has told me I can write for his blog if I throw him a bi-weekly compliment. So here it is. As crazy a game as Rob played early in the Amazon, he knew he would never have to pay for his pre-tribe switch flip-flopping because all the people he screwed would be out of the game, and not in the jury. Rob knew he could play both sides, and then pick the side he wanted to align with.

Chelsea, you had this chance.

Nina was furious with Kat and said to Chelsea, “She (Kat) should be going home. She’s been ruining this tribe. I know she’s fun but she’s been ruining it. Ignorant nitwit. Outlast outwit but you can’t when you’re witless.”

Chelsea laughed a knowing laugh and then Nina made an awesome play, one which should have worked, saying, “You’re too smart to let this happen. We can actually redeem ourselves as a tribe and not let this happen, because right now we look like idiots.” Chelsea agreed saying, “Trust me I’ve been embarrassed since I’ve been here.”

Chelsea should have implored the other Wooers to keep Nina one more week and get rid of Christina. Alicia certainly would have gone for it. Privately, Chelsea could have talked to Nina and Monica about proving to the guys that the girls are just as strong, and just as athletic. While not true, it would have won them over. And then if you have to get rid of those two next week. Oh well.

But if you win the next couple of challenges, come tribe switch time (try to act surprised) you not only would have had all the Woo Girls loyal to you, you would have had Monica and Nina loyal as well. And the best part is if you lost the next challenge, you had the option to possibly reassess your current alliance or just get rid of Monica or Nina with no consequence other than a little awkwardness on the night of the reunion. So Chelsea, don’t you dare argue with me, accept my heel, for you are, unfortunately, very deserving.

Personal Thoughts:

As much as I’m ragging on Sabrina and Chelsea, I’m really digging their athletic and non-girly attitudes. They both don’t come off as quitters, and if they get a little lucky during tribe switch time, I can see either in the final three with enough votes to win.

I also like Monica. She has the line of the season when she said dejectedly, “I’m sad. I’m sad for women. This isn’t the way women are and frankly I’m so embarrassed.” While I laugh at her dismay, I root for her redemption because allow me to be politically correct for a change. She’s right and wrong. Some women are really competitive, some women aren’t. Just like men. And playing on a coed hockey team for four years…some of my favorite teammates were women and some of my least favorite were men. And vice-versa. It really all boils down to personality, not gender. She got stuck with a few bad apples, but she also has some good competitors with Sabrina and Chelsea. And Kat. You’ll see. You’ll all see! Or maybe there will be no tribe switch and the guys will pull a ‘72 Dolphins and go undefeated. How the hell should I know?

Lastly, allow me to pull a David Murphy. In Survivor Redemption Island instead of asking Boston Rob, Phillip or the young girl who had no chance a question at Final Tribal, David spoke to his fellow jurors and implored them to use their vote to make Rob the winner. So I’m turning to you my loyal followers and telling you this—I know Colton wants to be Survivor Famous, but the kid has more game than we are giving him credit for. When he told Jonas, “I have to make Matt and Mike think I’m still with them, because if they get scared they’re gonna like pull something,” it showed that he’s thinking game strategy. Albeit flawed game strategy, since the Misfits plus Colton make five, and that’s a majority, so there’s no reason to play your idol, but at least he has his head more in the game than we are giving him credit for.

Love me or hate me, feel free to email me and let me know what I can do better. My email is RichieGlanzer [at] gmail [dot] com and I promise to respond to every email I get. Or you can do the Twitter thingee and tweet me at @RichieHero7.

Rob Cesternino

Rob Cesternino is a two-time Survivor player and reality TV aficionado. Rob gives his thoughts on his favorite Reality TV shows as the host of "Rob Has a Podcast" More From Rob Cesternino »


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  • http://twitter.com/JackMarco Jack_Marco

    I think you are giving Colton too much credit.

    You say the hidden Immunity Idol is keeping him safe if used perfectly. And thats true. If he uses it perfectly but right now he doesn´t.

    He has an advantage the next Tribal Council because his alliance doesn´t know wether or not he will play the Idol. It would be unnecessary to play it since they already have the numbers advantage but of course he is nervous and I would understand if he plays it.

    Now lets say he plays it. With the Idol gone Colton would be in an even worse spot than he was before. The girls rejected him, therefore I doubt that they would give him another Idol if they found it. The “Misfits” now can easily get rid of him since without him they still have the numbers.

    Lets say he doesn´t play the Idol. One of the other alliance is going home and Colton will become the most cocky human being on earth. The most reasonable thing for the “Misfits” to do would be to treat him like a King and make clear to him that he is running the show. They gain his trust and then blindside him in the next Tribal Council because the HII is only and advantage if you feel threatened and play it. It would be too much of a risk to keep him with the Idol since everybody knows that he will immediately flip to the girls at the merge and with Colton gone the “Misfits” still have the number advantage.

    And about his comment:

    “I have to make Matt and Mike think I’m still with them, because if they get scared they’re gonna like pull something,”

    I would consider that good gameplay if Mike and Matt actually thought that there was a moment in the past were he was actually with them. Also if you take a look at this bonus scene:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGiKjU2r30I&feature=plcp&context=C3a3f712UDOEgsToPDskJkxVQ_DpDxi2C-y802kqS_

    you will notice that he doesn´t even try to pretend to be with them. And if you pay attention you might have noticed that Mike also knows that he has the Idol. And if Mike knows the whole tribe knows. That much for good gameplay.

    Colton now has an even bigger target on his back due to his terrible gameplay and my prediction is that he will be gone premerge.

    • idonthaveausername

      I’m so glad someone is speaking my mind. Colton doesn’t deserve credit, he probably plays one of the worst starting game ever. 

      I am in the pro for immunity idol, but hating this season twist because of Colton. There is no chance in hell the girl tribe or anyone will look for the idol and give it to Colton (if idol rules remains as previous season that it can be used by anyone) while he himself sit his lazy ass around and never make the attempt to find it for himself.

      • RichieGlanzer

        But they already gave the idol to Colton.

        And yes, he’s lazy but math tells you when the tribe switch comes, he’s probably going to be in with mostly Misfits and girls and they are going to use him as leverage. 

        He probably wont win, but I bet he goes past the merge.

        • damnbueno

          The only way Colton lasts deep into this game is if someone who carries a LOT of influence (I’m talking Hatch/Brian/Russell/Boston Rob type of control) is able to carry the very unlikeable Colton all the way to the finals.  Colton is perfect to sit next to because he has irritated everyone in the game.

          The smart person will realize nobody likes him, and nobody will want to give a million bucks to a lazy, whiny, spoiled, crying little brat with a crappy attitude.  Sitting next to Colton at the end would be like sitting next to Clay, Twila, Katie Dreamz, Sugar, Sash, or Phillip.

          But so far, I haven’t seen anyone whose powers of manipulation are good enough to keep Colton around that long.

          • RichieGlanzer

            Who was the Boston Rob type in Twila, Katie, Dreamz, Sugar, or Sash’s season? By this point, you don’t need a veteran to realize you want to sit next to someone like Colton.

            And keep in mind, we are only six days in. Very little you do now will matter come jury vote time. If Colton changes his attitude just a little, he could still win.

          • damnbueno

            There wasn’t a Boston Rob-Type in any of those seasons except for Fireman Tom.  I’m not sure I understand your reference here.  My point is Colton won’t be able to get himself to the finals.  He needs some loyal partners, and he has irritated so many so quickly, I doubt anyone will want to live with him for another 36 days.  He’s most likely to be discarded as soon as he’s not needed.

            Katie, Dreamz, Sugar, Twila, Clay, Phillip and Sash all had alliance partners who put up with them mostly because they were loyal, very easily manipulated or both.  So far Colton has shown he is neither of those things.

            Being irritating or disloyal can make your partners get rid of you early.  That’s what happened to Jerri (Australia), Kelly (Africa), Shii-Ann (Thailand), Lisa (Vanuatu), Coby (Palau), Jamie & Judd (Guatemala), Ozzy (Micronesia), Brendan (Tocantins), Erik (Samoa), and Danielle (HvV).

            There’s plenty of precedent for this.  Being irritating is probably the easiest way to get voted out.

          • http://twitter.com/JackMarco Jack_Marco

            You are right but the problem with this strategie is this:

            I guess judging by Coltons current Situation you are talking about one of the men bringing him to the finals since right now they are basically holding his fate in their hands.This strategie is only wise if this someone who you wanna take to the finals with you is willing to stick with you.

            Colton right now is too much of a threat to let him stay in the game. Everyone knows that he will immediately flip over to the women after the merge despite the fact that the women rejected him.

            If you want to take someone to the finals because you think you can beat him, only works if this person trusts you or at least doesn´t have the chance of stabbing you in the back.

          • damnbueno

            I’m not saying anybody in the game WANTS to carry Colton all the way to the finals.  Everybody hates the guy right now.

            I’m saying Colton can’t get there by himself like someone like Sandra can.  The only way he makes it to the finals is with a TON of help, or perhaps a few lucky breaks like Susie got in Gabon.

            Colton is most likely to go out a few votes before the merge.

          • http://twitter.com/JackMarco Jack_Marco

            I hope he won´t make it to the merge because he is one of the worst possible people you can have on a jury.

          • damnbueno

            The men most definitely don’t want him on the Jury.  I don’t think there’s any way Colton would ever vote for a man in the finals if a woman was also there.

            I can’t stand Alicia, but I would love to see her on the Jury.  She’s so angry and bitchy, her Jury question could rival Sue’s “Rats and Snake’s speech.” Or maybe Corinne —“Sugar, I’d only vote to give you a handful of anti-depressants” and “Susie, you only get my vote if you agree to remove your vocal cords” rant.

    • damnbueno

      You took the words right out of my mouth.  Well said.

  • RichieGlanzer

    Jack you maybe right and thanks for the response.

    But here’s the thing. The Misfits would be crazy to turn on Colton the next Tribal, and I think you agree with that. I doubt very much that Colton will play his Idol bc I think he’ll realize it too. I don’t anticipate the guys losing twice, so I think the tribe switch will happen, and Colton will have an Idol, and align himself with the girls and one of the Misfits and be in a majority.

    Also, you probably are thinking too rationally. Of course their are blindsides, but they are exciting bc they don’t happen all that often. If Colton makes it to the tribe switch, he becomes a very dangerous player.

    • http://twitter.com/JackMarco Jack_Marco

      Of Course you are right if there is a tribe switch everything will be different and the situation will become unpredictable. But I think if there won´t be a switch and the Guys really have to go to Tribal Council twice then Colton probably will go home. That´s of course only if the Misfits are smart.

      • RichieGlanzer

        I think you can predict come tribe switch tribe. The girls will totally align with Colton bc they will need the #’s. I also think if he has 5 he wont use the idol. He really has set himself up well to go far. Maybe not win, but there’s a long way and the people he pisses off now may not be around later. Or he may become better.

        • http://profile.yahoo.com/A5C2UTFY4WGNVEKUHUA2L3WPZM Mike

           I’d have to agree with Richie on this. It’s similar to my argument in ‘defense’ of Ozzy’s move last season (it was still horrible because of his idiotic misreading of Christine’s neon- “I hate Coach and want to join you guys” attitude, but if it was a Matt Elrod type that would go back with Coach, I feel like the move would have been arguably correct) that assuming they’d merge at 12, that he’d be able to win at redemption island, that he’d come back at the merge, were all reasonably calculated assumptions based on the previous season where they debuted RI (and was too early to change) and I think in this case that it’s a completely reasonable line to assume that there will be a tribe switch in this game considering that every game in Survivor history where tribes were separated by physical characteristics(Cook Islands, Panama, Vanuatu, Amazon, and Nicaragua) had tribe swaps.

          • RichieGlanzer

            Mike I couldn’t believe they didn’t realize Christine would go back with them. Though if she lost to Cochrane, Cochrane would have been right to switch tribes. By Ozzy doing what he did, he showed loyalty to Cochrane, and Cochrane should have shown loyalty back. (And screwed them later)

          • http://profile.yahoo.com/A5C2UTFY4WGNVEKUHUA2L3WPZM Mike

            Well, if I may make one further assumption, Christine wouldn’t have lost to Cochran.

            As for the second point, I certainly agree with that, I was one of the most staunch critics of Cochran’s decision not to go to rocks at the time because switching gave him absolutely no leverage and Coach explicitly told him he was 7 of 7 (which definitely reminded me of Enzo and Hayden telling Matt they were keeping Lane over him, and he still didn’t turn on them with the DPOV, if I may make a BB reference), but given that Christine would have went with them, Ozzy shouldn’t have let it get to that point in the first place.

        • damnbueno

          Colton has already proven to be just as irritating to the women as he is to the men.  Even if they’re down in numbers, they may not welcome Colton as warmly as you suspect — especially if he doesn’t have an Idol.

          • RichieGlanzer

            So you think they’d rather be eliminated than side with Colton? Because that’s their other option.

          • damnbueno

            They’d have plenty of options.  Survivor is a game of relationships.  Those who develop good relationships with most of the players (like Rob C. did) can always come up with a backup plan.

            These women have the advantage of being able to interact with the men for the entire game.  They have a shot at knowing who is in the minority on the men’s tribe.  It depends on how the numbers fall at a merge.  If all the frat boys are still together, the women might be better off teaming up with whoever is left of the misfits (besides Colton).

            And of course the Hidden Idols can always swing the power in a different direction.

            It’s just too early to apply any absolute strategy rules.

  • Dan Heaton

    Richie, I think the difference between voting out Nina and Christina is pretty negligible. For better TV, I would have loved to see Kat go home because she’s boring and not smart, but I understand why the alliance stuck together. In terms of Nina vs. Christina, neither has proven they’re particularly great at challenges. Right now, the girls aren’t communicating at challenges, which is the main reason they’re failing. For different reasons, Christina and Nina feel left out and are doing just as poorly at the challenges. With a tribal swap on the horizon (possibly after next week if they lose again), the difference doesn’t matter because they’ll just send Christina next week. Either way, they’re in real trouble.

    • RichieGlanzer

      Well Dan the thing for me is this. If the girls win the next challenge and then they go to the swap, Christina will have zero reason to align herself with any of the Woo Girls. Had they kept Nina and basically said, you’re one of us etc., then maybe she would have. I’m just saying, Christina and Monica are not going to be loyal come tribe switch time.

      • damnbueno

        “I’m just saying, Christina and Monica are not going to be loyal come tribe switch time.” — This all depends on how the numbers fall.

        Let’s say Kim, Christina, Monica and Kat stay together in a swap.  Suddenly Kim has no choice but to trust Christina & Monica until she builds a relationship with whichever men she ends up with.  The same would be true about Christina & Monica.  So far, Kim hasn’t done anything to piss off Christina or Monica.  They’d have little reason not to want to stick with Kim.

        Suppose those same 4 end up in the majority with 3 men on their tribe?  That would spell instant female loyalty to me.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/CLQQIDMDAJB7V76ALMF2XZ3BRY Christine

    Richie, great blog.  So look forward to the rest of your comments this season.  BTW thanks for the clip and I’m not liking Michael or Colton after that.

    • RichieGlanzer

      Thank you Christine. But I can’t take credit for the clip. That was Jack. But I wouldn’t take too much stock into the clip, I’m sure a lot of people snap at each other. (Though I’m curious if Mike truly thinks he has the idol, I certainly would be very afraid to piss of Colton)

  • http://runawayjuror.survivorsucks.yuku.com/ Runaway Juror

    Chelsea’s move in voting out Nina was 100% correct as was Alicia, Kim, and Sab.  You always get rid of the person who will flip vs. the loyal person in your alliance.  This shouldn’t even be a debate. 

    Nina knew she was on the outs and had some influence with Monica and Christina.  Get rid of her and make buddies with Monica and Christina so they don’t feel alienated.  I could cite a bunch of examples.  Brenda pretending to be friends with Kelly B. so she wouldn’t flip at the swap comes to mind.  And you saw Alicia playing along and patching things up with Christina to bring her back in the fold.  Exactly what she should be doing.  Nina’s too old/too smart to fall for that.  And it’s not like Nina is Ozzy and Kat is Chet.  Nina can’t even jump on a net without hurting herself. 

    And Chelsea (and Kim) going to Sab and Alicia and saying let’s backstab Kat is an awful move.  They gave their word to keep Kat and never vote her out (until they need to) and there are 3 people not in their alliance and instead they are turning on Kat?!  Showing two people in your alliance you are a liar and go back on your word is not good.

    Don’t like the Woo Girls nickname.  It doesn’t fit since Chelsea, Kim, Sabrina, and Alicia are all independent thinkers.  Kat’s the only one remotely a Woo Girl.  Alicia called them the Wolfpack Alliance in a confessional which is a much better nickname.

    The Heel award should go to any of the Tool Time Alliance (Coach’s nickname for Jay-Matt-Mike-Bill) for not making Colton feel included.  It’s Survivor 101 to do that with people on the outs.  Especially when there are idols floating around!  They also fail at math since an alliance of 4 in a tribe of 9 is not the majority. 

    • RichieGlanzer

      Very fair points Mr. Juror. But I think the difference between Nina and Christina is you can still pull Nina on your side if there are a couple of challenges before the switch. As I stated, you get rid of the person weakest *not in your alliance.* I would not have gotten rid of Kat. However they could have to be honest and just pulled in Monica. If I were one of the Woo Girls (I understand your point but Wolfpack wasn’t in How I Met Your Mother) I would be playing both sides right now. The switch is going to turn everything upside down and they probably will be the first ones picked off if they don’t make nice with the boys and Monica/Christina, since its almost impossible all five will land on the same tribe.

      And that’s why I would have saved Nina. Make her feel part of the group, or just make a big stink how we saved Christina.

      Either way, I appreciate the feedback.

      • http://runawayjuror.survivorsucks.yuku.com/ Runaway Juror

        No problem.   You’re welcome for the feedback and thanks for the reply.

        Yeah, I thought you meant for them to vote out Kat instead of Nina.  I would still say Nina’s weaker than Christina. 

        From Nina’s interviews, I don’t see how the Wolfpack (refuse to call them Woo Girls) gets Nina to vote anyone but Kat at that Tribal.  Nina was hell bent on voting Kat.  Monica voted Christina and Christina voted Nina so I think Monica-Christina were the ones more open for the Wolfpack to schmooze and bring back into the fold.  Targeting the person who is trying to vote out one of your alliance seems better to me than voting out Christina who somewhere along the way agreed with the Wolfpack to vote with them.

        Whatever discussions there were with Monica and Christina about who to vote for in that EP2 TC would be a good question for Rob C. to ask the next original Salani who gets voted out in his interview.  Since CBS decided to be a bunch of bastards and stop posting the voting confessional videos, I have no idea what the rogue voters are really thinking.

        The swap will be interesting (it’s definitely coming).  Old Nina seems to have been more of a threat to flip – esp. if she ended up on a tribe with her fellow old people the Zans.  I think the guys are more likely to see Christina as sneaky and not trust her. 

        At the swap, I say the boys are more likely to be picked off than the girls.  The tribe divide is clearer – 4 Misfits vs. 4 Tool Time and Colton is an automatic vote for the girls.  Put 2 of Matt-Mike-Bill-Jay on a tribe with any 2 of Colton-Jonas-Troyzan-Tarzan-Leif and any 3 girls and I bet one of the Tool Time members goes. 

        Have a great weekend!

  • damnbueno

    It seems to me that Kim had the most influential voice in deciding to boot Nina, not Chelsea.  It looks like even though Sabrina has accepted the “official” role of “leader,” Kim is really affecting the tribe’s voting decisions. Chelsea believed what Nina was saying, but had to convince Kim to go along.  Obviously Kim didn’t.

    Chelsea is Kim’s most trusted ally of course.  Alicia lobbied to boot Christina, so we know the women aren’t following her lead just yet.  I’m curious to know if Kim & Chelsea asked for other opinions, or did they merely issue the order to their alliance to vote for Nina?

    Colton is far from being the “leader” of the men’s tribe.  Every one of them knows he has the Idol (a deleted scenes video on the CBS site confirms Mike knows about it, and if he knows, his alliance knows).  Colton’s Idol keeps him safe for 1 vote unless he’s smart enough to know he doesn’t have to play it.  NOBODY is following his lead or asking for his advice.  They’re only putting up with him because they have to.  If the misfits are smart, they’ll placate him until they get rid of 2 Frat Boys.  Then they’ll cut him loose at the first chance they get because they know he won’t stay loyal to them.

    • GlennHolford

      I’m gonna go another way on this one. I think Colton is in the final five as long as there is a tribe swap. In a normal season, Colton survives one vote, burns his idol, and he’s the next guy out. But this season, if there is in fact a tribe swap, the men would have to lose tonight AND next week to be able to kick him out before the swap. In any other scenario, Colton makes it to the swap, likely with idol still in hand. 

      It is interesting that every single contestant on Survivor knows about Colton’s idol. I think in some ways that actually makes him oddly powerful. He loses the power of the blindside, that’s true, but he gains power and prestige, and in some cases that can be a trade-off worth making. Until he has to burn the idol, of course.

      But, assuming that Colton can make it to the merge, and I think that he will, then I don’t see him as a high-priority. If the men go in with numbers, they’ll focus on Pagonging the women first and if the women go in with numbers, they’ll keep Colton’s loyal vote. If the tribes merge even, Colton’s still sitting pretty as a swing vote. As obnoxious as I think he is, and as much as I’d like to see him voted out, I’m putting Colton’s odds of reaching Final Five at like 60-70%. 

      • damnbueno

        Colton’s Idol gives him temporary power, but he hasn’t gained an ounce of prestige.

        You saw how many women were irritated with him, didn’t you?  Colton has managed to irritate at least 8 players (the frat boys, Kim, Sabrina, Chelsea and Monica) in less than 6 days.  I won’t at all be surprised if he has irritated more than 8.  There’s absolutely no guarantee that the women will want to take him deep into the game.  They’ve got enough to worry about.  They don’t want to add “babysit Colton” to their list of things to get done.

        If he were merely a whiny baby, some players might put up with him.  But Colton also thinks he’s in charge, and that the other players are there to serve him.  That attitude won’t inspire anyone to want to keep him around.

        • GlennHolford

          I’ll say this: Jay falling in to vote with the misfit alliance could make Colton and his idol way less valuable. If the numbers remain the same, with Jay on board the men COULD easily placate Colton, let him think he’s in charge, and then come tribal council send him packing with his idol in his pocket. That could absolutely happen, I agree. Do I think that’s very likely? No. I just don’t see any of the misfit men having the strategic foresight to pull off a move like that. Like it or not, I think Colton’s running circles around these guys right now. 

          I agree with you that people are irritated with Colton, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that people will vote him out. Remember the Philip Shepherd playbook? If I’m out there on the beach, I probably want to take Colton deep. I want to sit next to him at Final Tribal if possible. He’s obnoxious, rude, lazy and unlikeable. He could be the key to someone else’s million dollar game. 

          But either way, I think that separating him from his idol should be the men’s top priority. Unfortunately, I just think they’re going to run out of time before the tribe swap to get that done. With the dispatch of Matt tonight, we’ve got two even tribes if we count Colton as a woman. (In terms of how he’ll be voting, not because he’s gay). 

          If we assume that the swap will happen in episode five, which of course is a wild guess, then we’ve got three possible scenarios: 

          1: the women win immunity next week and Colton is eliminated, and the tribes enter the swap tied for numbers
          2: the women win immunity and Colton is NOT eliminated, and the men enter the swap down a vote after Colton flips 
          3: the men win immunity, and enter the swap up one vote in numbers BUT with the caveat that Colton and his idol are now in the hands of the women

          What a difference a single episode can make! None of those options shake out very well for the men.  

          • damnbueno

            Comparing Phillip to Colton isn’t really fair.  Phillip stuck around mostly because he fit into Boston Rob’s plans.  Rob knew early on that Phillip could easily be beaten in the finals.  Rob also had absolute control over everyone in that tribe — they wouldn’t even eat without his permission.  Nobody was voted out without Rob’s approval.

            There isn’t anyone showing that kind of control this season.  Even if someone steps up and takes as much power as Rob had, there’s no guarantee that person would want Colton as a partner.

            Colton was smart enough to keep his Idol, but that still doesn’t put him in charge.  He was very clear about wanting Bill out.  Troy convinced the entire alliance to vote for Matt instead.  Even Bill voted for Matt.  If Colton were running circles around everyone, Bill would have left.  In fact, both Troyzan, Tarzan and Jonas are slowly starting to score points with the women too.  The women will remember who allowed them to use their shelter (Jonas, Troy, Tarzan & Colton), and who demanded to use the Canoe in return (Jay and Mike).

            The Men know they have to put up with Colton as long as he’s useful to them.  You’re right, if Jay proves to be loyal, they could blindside Colton and his Idol next week.

            All three of your numbered scenarios are possible, unless Troyzan, Tarzan, Leif and Jonas make some friends on the women’s tribe.  So far it appears they know they’ll have to do that.  Troyzan and Leif were the only men who congratulated the women on their Immunity win.  The strategic barrier between the two tribes isn’t as strong as it was on day 1.

            I’ve got two questions to ponder.  1) Can Colton use the Men’s Idol to protect one of the women, or is that truly a “Men’s only” Idol?
            2) Why hasn’t Sabrina gone looking for the women’s Idol?

            If the women find their Idol, or if Colton can’t share the Men’s Idol with them, suddenly he’s not as valuable to them.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001320318845 Robi Franklin

    This is just one of those “im trying to be different” opinions. The men are stronger than the woman. The women need strong players, Nina was one of them, they should have kept her. Kat on the other hand cant understand basic instructions and is generally retarded. Enough said.

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