SurvivorSurvivor: Cagayan

Bad Things Are Going To Happen

Previously on Survivor, everyone was battling for immunity idols and it was Spencer who found it…

Spencer is seen with the “plain old idol.”

… but the idol with different powers was yet to be discovered.

Tony was heard saying he wanted that idol as a security blanket.


There was also a battle between two alliances…

LJ told us that Tasha, Spencer and Jeremiah were easy pickings.

…But at the last reward, Tony saw a chance to use the minority alliance to his advantage.

We heard Tony telling Jeremiah and Spencer that LJ was shady.

He then told us that he was using them for that one vote and going back to his alliance.

Spencer told Jeremiah that they were good just by letting them kill each other.


At Tribal Council Tony got what he wanted … blindsiding LJ and his alliance.


This recap really paints Tony in a great light. The only description we had of LJ was that he was shady. There wasn’t a single mention that it was all engineered in Tony’s feverish mind; that he lied about Woo targeting LJ, thus setting up the horse trainer.  There was also the fact that we heard him repeating that he would go back to his alliance which, surprisingly, proved much easier to do than expected.  In fact, this recap showed that Tony was better than Spencer at the mind games. Spencer thought they would be good, that Tony’s alliance would kill each other, but this episode would show that Tony was right; that he could go back to his alliance.  It wouldn’t be his only victory.


Bad Things Are Going To Happen


Solarrion – Night 25


The same creature came back to take a look at the new tribe and to witness the reaction to the LJ blindside.

(Does it count in the program’s ratings?  Will Probst boast that Survivor is number 1 in the strange creature category?)


Kass was heard saying she loves this game while Tony was proud to tell Jefra that he flipped along with Woo. Asked for his reasons, he simply said he couldn’t tell Jefra, Trish and Kass because they liked LJ.


Trish had the first confessional of the evening: “Tony completely bamboozled LJ. At first, I felt like wow! I wish I kind of knew but then immediately, I understood why he didn’t tell me. He was afraid that the plan might get destroyed so I wasn’t mad. I still trust Tony and Tony still trusts me.”

There are two schools of thoughts on Trish’s confessional:  Some will say that she is extremely gullible and her trust won’t be rewarded while others will say that she knows how to handle Tony, that she will get him to take her to the end where the jury will give her the money.  We’ll have to get back to this during the character analysis.


Kass asked if it was only a one vote alliance which Tony said it was.

Jefra wanted to know if she was on the bottom of the alliance, but there was no such thing as a bottom in the alliance according to Tony.

Spencer reacted to that saying that it never works out when people promise top six.


Spencer in confessional: “I like to plan around what I think people are going to do. Tony is not so predictable. Tony likes big move and I’m not going to complain about it because it benefitted me, but he could do the exact same thing later and I can’t always count on him. The sooner we make a move against Tony, the better.  I am real tight with Jeremiah and Tasha, now it’s a matter of finding out which straggler we need to take along to make moves with.”


While Tasha and Jeremiah were equally qualified to give us the minority alliance’s view, it was once more Spencer that was chosen to give the confessional.  It really sets up the mind game between Spencer and the “not-so-predictable” Tony.


The next morning started with a confessional from Tony: “Right now, my red flag is raised because I blindsided LJ. I’m in trouble so I’m going to have to do something to get myself out of it. Most people, including myself, we go all the way to the water well because it is a bit further away from camp where people can’t hear you. That’s where they talk strategy. So, I started working on some nice blueprints to make a nice little shack around the water well…I’m within five feet and that’s where I will be most patient: Sitting in my spy shack.”


Sure enough, Jefra came along, telling Trish that she didn’t trust Tony.

Trish said that the alliance was still strong.


Tony reacted to that: “I heard Trish and Jefra talking. Trish said that Tony was going to win an academy awards for his acting skills.” The camera went back to Jefra who added that she was OK with LJ’s blindside but not the way Tony did it. Tony’s confessional went on: “Right now in the game, I trust Trish, I trust Woo and I trust Kass and that’s pretty much it.  I don’t trust Jefra anymore because she doesn’t trust me and if she doesn’t trust me I’m not going to trust her so now I’m in trouble.”


The spy shack had only been a subject of derision in an early episode and had since been forgotten, but we finally saw its usefulness.  Tony didn’t exactly hear the biggest secret though and Jefra had already expressed her concerns during the discussion they had the previous night. So, was this scene shown to feature Tony’s ingenuity or to further mock him? 



Very Interesting!

Very Interesting!



All I can say is that it made me laugh.




The Reward Challenge


Notice that, once more, the random draw gave optimal results: The underdogs had the needed straggler on their team.


The Callao caves ( ) was the destination for the winning team. There they would have a barbecue and a surprise.


During the challenge, we heard Jeff saying that Tasha was doing a good job leading her team, but, working together, Tony and Woo soon took over and their team found their rhythm. They kept the lead all the way back to the platform even if Tony lost a paddle.

When they had all the paddles untied the two teams started copying from each other.

(Would it be so hard to put a wall between them? Since rewards are mostly designed to create frustration, production probably likes the added animosity caused by the appearance of “cheating”.)

Jeff said Woo and Kass were solving for Orange while Tasha and Spencer worked for Purple but really everyone was contributing. (Except Jefra but she was probably suffering from a concussion after Jeremiah hit her with a paddle)

Kass came up with “Worth Fighting For” which quickly led to Spencer “stealing” the solution.


Tony had a confessional: “We lost today’s challenge and the first thing that comes to mind is that we are in trouble. Tony’s in trouble too, but we are all in trouble. There are four people: Spencer, Tash, Jeremiah, Jefra – Jefra that doesn’t believe in me anymore, that doesn’t believe she is in an alliance anymore – that’s a problem. Bad things are going to happen.”


If Bad things are going to happen for Tony, they certainly didn’t happen in this episode.  I still chose this quote as the theme of the episode because we’ve reached a point where the season could unravel. 


Solarrion  – Day 26


Woo said he felt bitter about losing

(Was it an indication that he won’t take his elimination well?)

Kass worried about Spencer, Jeremiah and Tasha. Tony agreed, saying they “are going to pull in Jefra”


Kass had a confessional: “I’m tired of losing, but if I want a million dollars, I need to stick with this five: Woo, Tony, Trish and Jefra.  From my point of view, Tony felt threatened and got rid of LJ. I’m not offended by someone making a move. Tony is annoying but my philosophy is: Keep the annoying people and get rid of the threats. If Spencer loses immunity, Spencer needs to go.”


Nice philosophy but what if a threat is annoying you?  Sarah came to mind.


Tony addressed Kass, saying: “We didn’t promise you, but we promised us and we can include you in the promise because we didn’t break our promise to LJ.”


The audience remembers that LJ was included in the “Top Five” vow that Tony made in his joy of winning a challenge so here’s another occasion where we can scratch our head at what he says.  It wouldn’t be Tony’s last struggle with logic.  And that was quite a contorted way to make an offer to Kass. She must think that Trish is the one to rely on to stay in that alliance because Tony’s words would have been enough to make anyone bolt to a new alliance. 


It was at that time that Trish returned from the well and was surprised to see them talking strategy. Even if Tony replied that they had to strategize and Kass asked how she felt about having Jefra over there, Trish was more interested in the lemon and papaya trees she had discovered.  She wanted someone to come help her bring them down.


Tony had a confessional: “I’m trying to talk to Trish about strategy. I’m trying to do something, trying to enlighten them to what s going on; how crucial this was today. This could be the beginning of our demise and she is saying: Where are the limes and papayas?  So, Tony has to go strategize by himself as usual.  I just need a few minutes to myself. I am going to go look for the idol.  Limes and Papayas? you got to be kidding me. As far as the idol that is hidden in the riverbank, it’s very possible that Spencer, Tash or Jeremiah have it, but, when we had a merge, it said that hidden near camp is an idol with special power. That’s all I know about it. Let me find that idol: I’ll be super-Tony, Tony-in-trouble no more.”


It’s strange that Tony is certain that the riverbank idol isn’t the idol with super powers. Spencer only found out after reading the instructions.   We are missing something and I will make a guess: We didn’t hear it but when LJ was voted out, Jeff may have added the phrase: “…Unless you have the idol with special powers”after he asked him to bring his torch.  He could have used the same formula before snuffing Morgan and Sarah’s torches and that would be how the players found out about the presence of two idols.


Last week, (thank you Sarah) Kass had a secret scene where she said there were two different idols and we know she didn’t get a clue during a reward so something must have been said to alert them, whether my guess is right or not.  To the viewers who don’t know about Kass’ secret scene and don’t realize Jeff may have given them the information, Tony looks a lot wiser for seemingly having figured this out all on his own. That is always a good sign for a player’s chances.


We left Tony to his search so that we could join Trish and Woo standing under a tree that had papayas that looked “like Morgan’s boobs”.  Woo climbed the tree and started shaking it.


Woo in confessional: “I’m shaking this papaya tree. Boom! I get at least seven monster papayas. That branch that I had in my right hand was a dead branch that I didn’t realize.  From there, I was trying to pull a Sylvester Stallone, like cliff-hanger, swing my left hand but as soon as I swing it: Oh! Boom! Spencer, Jeremiah, Tasha and Jefra are on an epic reward and this is exactly what I did not want to happen, but I was very lucky to come out of it OK. We got some fresh papaya and some lime so, you know, I’m pumped.”


It seems that even Woo’s successful missions don’t necessarily go as well as planned.


The Reward



A Glimpse of the Caves

A Glimpse of the Caves


Following a guide, the winning team walked through the Callao caves. They appeared magnificent but we never really had a good look.  The guide told them to watch their step and Spencer nearly fell.

Spencer had a confessional: “The reward was really, really cool. The caves had a scale about them that was just epic. There’s no other way to describe it.”


Seeing the table full of food told us that our visit was over.

Tasha gave us a confessional: “Although the caves were magnificent, even more magnificent was the table of food.  It felt like your home town barbecue.”


Spencer had another confessional: “I was on the reward with no distraction, with my core alliance, Jeremiah and Tasha and Jefra who we need to pull in.  It was perfect because I need Jefra to feel good about us and our four.”


When Tasha asked her how she felt, Jefra said she was confused because she hadn’t been told about the big move and didn’t know where she fit in the alliance.

Tasha wondered if there was even an alliance before adding that it wasn’t in their interest to keep Tony.

Jefra was all for that idea.

Spencer asked her if she would like to work with them.

Jefra said she needed more food to help her think about that but that’s when the guide returned with some letters from home.

Jefra broke down in tears as soon as she saw the envelope with her name on it.


Jefra in confessional: “Before I could even get the letter from home in my hand, I was already squalling and screaming. It was exactly what I needed. My mother’s words hit home for me so hard. As much as you don’t want to break down, as much as you don’t want to cry, sometimes it’s your only option.” She read a passage out loud: “Don’t let your kind heart be your downfall, don’t be scared to lie.” She added that this was probably the sign that she should jump ship at this point. Her confessional resumed; “I’m a firm believer that everything happens for a reason and there isn’t a doubt in my mind that I won the reward because I needed to hear exactly what my mom was telling me.”



The scene ended as they all shook hands on a Final Four deal but Jefra pointed out that Jeremiah had shaken her hand before.


Actually, the four never shook hands together. First, we saw Jefra and Spencer shaking hands then she turned to Tasha and she hesitated to take Jeremiah’s hand. At that point, Spencer raised himself to get a group handshake but Tasha had already turned away and Spencer was left hanging. Of course, with Jeremiah’s elimination, we know that this will not be the Final 4, but should we look for any more signs from this scene?  It could very well be telling us that, like Jeremiah, Tasha and Spencer don’t make it to the end because Jefra left them hanging.


The Immunity Challenge


Jefra was the first to drop the ball. She was quickly followed by Trish and Tony. Then, out of nowhere, Kass fell out of the challenge.

The other four made it to round two, a round which quickly claimed Jeremiah.

We were down to the same three that had won the three previous immunity challenges: Woo, Spencer and Tasha. The trio lasted up to the third and final round.


Amazing Recovery

Amazing Recovery


From the overhead shot, we saw that Tasha had to turn 90 degrees to her left in order to keep the ball on the stand, but we weren’t shown how she managed to do that.  It’s strange that we wouldn’t be shown such an amazing recovery if Tasha was going to be our heroine.


Woo was the first to fall during the last stage.

 Jeff pointed out that we had seen this showdown before, when Spencer pulled it out.

This time Tasha came out on top.

Despite his frustration, Spencer was the first to congratulate Tasha.


As the tribes headed back to camp, the editors gave a confessional to Jefra: “I don’t feel safe with Tony.  The rest of the alliance believes everything that he says, like he’s Jesus or something. I am more trusting of Tasha, Jeremiah and Spencer at this point and it could be my opportunity to get rid of Tony now versus having to get rid of Tony later.”


Jefra was wearing the blue top she had during the reward when she gave this confessional instead of the bikini she wore during the challenge. This confessional was probably taken right after the reward but used here to keep the suspense going as long as possible.  It also serves to paint a poor picture of the rest of the alliance that believes in Tony like he was Jesus.  That’s how we’d expect the jury to see them from afar, but even if someone that is inside the alliance sees them like that then it can’t be a good sign. It tells us that none of them could win a jury vote against Tony.  The last sentence raises a funny question though: What if Jefra, of all people, is the one that gets credit for eliminating Tony?


Solarrion – Day 28


After receiving congratulations, Tasha gave us a confessional: “As of now, the plan is for Spencer, Jeremiah, myself and Jefra to blindside Tony. The problem is it could be four and four and we may have to do a revote and go to rocks, but we feel like the most important person in the game to vote out is Tony.”


Tony, not one to waste time, was seen running in the jungle as we heard a confessional start in voice-over: “No necklace for Tony once again so, today, I am not chopping down no wood, I am not making a fire, I am not boiling water, I’m on a mission. I need an immunity idol.  In the past season of Survivor, it’s always been something iconic, some landmark. So, I figure there’s a crazy looking tree behind tree mail. I checked that when I first came here. I’m going to check that again.  I’m looking for that special idol and, you know what? I’m going to find it.”


While Tony was digging, Trish was talking to Jefra in the ocean, saying she could see that she was upset.

Jefra said it was because she didn’t feel safe in the alliance with Tony.


Trish gave us a confessional: “We get back to camp and I notice that something is wrong with Jefra.  She wears her heart on her sleeve.  She looked like she was almost on the verge of tears.”


When Kass joined them Jefra said that Tony was getting on her nerves.


Meanwhile, Tony was still searching. We heard him some more: “So, I went to the tree by tree mail: Nothing is there.  So, I said “let me walk the path in case something pops out and I ran into a tree that looked like a rocket ship.   It had these big roots like…I never seen anything like it. I got to start looking here. I start digging and then I felt something. I start digging, I start digging, I start digging. Please let this be it.”

We saw him pull it out of the ground and he collapsed in relief.


During his search, the music had been subdued, adding to the intrigue but not really creating anticipation. The rhythm increased when he got near but there wasn’t really a crescendo when he got to it, just some higher, louder notes to underline his find.  What do we make of this? Should we be happy that he found it or should we be upset that it will foil Tasha’s plan?  For once, it seems that the editors didn’t take sides, letting the viewers decide for themselves.


Tony’s confessional went on: “I almost passed out. I was just so happy and when I open it, it is a special idol.” We saw him kiss the idol and say that he loves it.  “This special idol that I found today is priceless.” As he read the instructions, we understood why: “…Unlike other hidden immunity idols, this idol can be played after the votes are read.” “After you hear the votes, you can use it? Everybody’s eyes went “biiing!” “This immunity idol protects only the person who finds it. You may not give this idol to another tribe member.”  We saw him racing off to go wash up as his confessional continued: “Do you know how powerful that is? I am going to show you how powerful that is.”


We know how powerful such an idol can be. It could be the key to Tony’s win because he can’t be blindsided anymore. All the hints we had that he didn’t want the special idol because it could send him home or that he could get hurt by the idol just like he got hurt looking for it amounted to nothing.  If we were wrong about that then we could be wrong about the rest also but there is still an impression that Tony is used for our amusement.  Showing him kiss the idol, say he loves it and then rushing off to go wash up was too much to take him seriously.  What I mean is that, with all his excitement, Tony still looks like he will overplay his hand.


We rejoined the three women in Tony’s alliance to hear another ironic comment from Kass: “Whenever you get rid of someone in this game that is annoying you, you screw yourself.”


Thank you Kass! You just confirmed that you screwed yourself when you voted against Sarah, the person that was annoying you. 


Trish told Jefra that eliminating Tony would give the power to the other three and that they couldn’t beat them in the end. She added: “We have a much better shot of beating Tony and Woo in the end.”


That’s when Tony joined them so Trish asked him if he could be trusted.  Tony gave them his word and swore on everybody that the other three would go next.


Trish in confessional: “So, I was questioning Tony’s integrity and he admitted that being a double-agent isn’t going to work and Jefra needed to hear that I was calling him out.  That’s why I did what I did, but I think she is pretty loyal, I don’t think she will flip.”


Kass brought up the fact that she thought Spencer had the idol.

Woo felt that would screw them.


Woo in confessional: “Tasha is safe tonight so, for us to get rid of Spencer would be a no-brainer considering he is good with the jury plus he is very capable of winning immunity challenges. Jeremiah on the other hand, is one of those athletes that threaten our chances as well, but there is one thing that we don’t have 100% certainty and that is who has a hidden immunity idol.”


Next, we heard Jefra telling Jeremiah that she wouldn’t be voting with him.


Mom’s advice was quickly forgotten.


Jeremiah had a confessional: “I think Jefra went in the water with her old alliance, everybody but me, Spencer and Tasha, and I just knew something was up. I didn’t put my trust in her. She shook my hand, she promised that but I guess they got the better of her.”


Here again, there is that feeling that we are encouraged to pull for the underdogs. Jefra said it was the best thing to do for her game, but Jeremiah’s words tell us that her old alliance took advantage of her.


The minority alliance knew it was pretty much over so it was time for revelations: Jeremiah said he was a fashion model.


Spencer in confessional: “So, Jeremiah realizes that there’s a real possibility that one of us is going home tonight so he decided to let the cat out of the bag and say that he’s a fashion model. It doesn’t surprise me that Jeremiah thinks him being a fashion model is this big deal, top secret thing that he can’t tell people, you know. That’s what you’d expect from the Beauty Tribe and so I decided to return the favor.” Spencer was about to reveal that he had an idol but Jeremiah guessed it first. His confessional continued: “I told Tasha and Jeremiah about my idol because now is the time to go for it, roll the dice and take a chance.  If it works out, it’s another shot. You know; the game is not over.”


Some may think that Spencer’s game is over now that he wasted his idol but remember that the theme of never giving up in this game is directly linked to him.  Also, consider that he called it just another shot even if it worked out. The important point of the confessional could very well be that he told us the game is not over.


Spencer then told them they should vote against Woo.

Tasha wondered why Woo and not Tony.

Spencer said it was because Woo was a bigger challenge threat.


We saw the tribe head out for Tribal Council while we heard the end of Spencer’s confessional: “I can play this thing for me; I can play it for Jeremiah, I can keep it but if I use it wrong, I could be kicking myself for the rest of my life.”


Now this is more damaging for his game.  He did use it wrong so he may very well regret it for the rest of his life.


Tribal Council



Don't Expect a Christmas Card...or my Vote

Don’t Expect a Christmas Card…or My Vote



While Tasha got her usual smiles, LJ didn’t look happy at all to see Tony.




Speaking first, Spencer said: “The game was up for grabs for a while (the camera showed us Jefra) but the three of us know where we stand which is on the outside.”

Jeremiah told Jeff that they talked to Jefra during the reward but “she decided to go back the other way.”

Jeff told Jefra that she sounded very impressionable.

Jefra replied: “I was still bitter about LJ and wondering where I stood in my own alliance.”

Trish cut in to say that the three women didn’t know about the plan to boot LJ.


(The jury took note of that)

Jefra added that she started weighing her options.  She thought it would be better to risk being blindsided by her alliance than sitting in the finals against Tasha, Spencer and Jeremiah who would probably beat her.

Frustrated, Spencer explained that he wouldn’t go back to camp wondering where he stood after being left out of the loop, he would know that he was on the outside and on the bottom. He added that Tony’s broken promises (That pleased LJ) and will break more promises.

Tony asked for a promise that he actually broke.

Spencer looked at him incredulously, just like Sarah looked at him.

Tony argued: “I didn’t break promises. I did it for a reason.”


(Now that’s clear. What nice logic: If you have a reason then breaking a promise isn’t really breaking it. Guatemala Judd would be proud of this turn of phrase. It can’t be a Jersey thing, can it?)


Spencer made his position perfectly clear: “If Tony goes to the end with any combination of you guys, my vote goes to Tony because Tony has been steering this game and he will have it.”

Tasha added that Tony would have her vote also.

(Trish and Jefra looked distraught while Tony was shaking his head, not appreciating that turn of events.)

Jeff seized the opportunity, turning to Woo and saying that Tony has three votes from people that will likely be on the jury.

Woo said Tony would get to the end only with their help.

Spencer said he was not rooting for Tony, but rooting for himself.

Trish told Spencer that they had a conversation where they called Tony out on all of his games.

Tasha said that they didn’t look really alarmed about it.

Trish vigorously said that they were alarmed so Tony was going to cut his crap.

(The Jury found that to be quite delusional)

Tony said that he heard Trish’s warning adding that there was a time for power moves: “Timing is everything” he said. (Of course, we had a shot of Kass just then!) Tony added that now it would be a reckless move: “At this stage of the game we have to remain solid to move forward.”

Woo said they wondered who could have the idol between Spencer and Jeremiah.

Asked what he would say to save himself, Jeremiah said that Spencer was a big threat.

Spencer turned it around and said that everyone liked Jeremiah.

Tasha said that they wouldn’t want to upset Tony again.

Tony said they couldn’t get him anyway because he had his bag of tricks.

(Jefra wasn’t amused by that)

Spencer said he wasn’t expecting Tony to play anything out of his bags but that he didn’t know what was in it.


When Kass passed close to the jury, they had a look as if she emitted a foul odor.


We heard Spencer imitating Woo’s surfer dude accent when he voted for him. If Spencer is any indication, the other players don’t necessarily like Woo or respect him.


When Jeff asked for an immunity idol, Spencer got up and said: “You can steal as many clues as you want Woo, but I have the real thing.”

He took his time to read the reactions from the other side. It led to a stand-off between Spencer and Tony who took out what looked like a wrapped idol.

Spencer gave his idol to Jeff.





Morgan was so happy to see it that she silently applauded.


When Jeff said that votes against Spencer would not count, Tony interrupted him with a rhetorical question: “Jeff; do you see the inexperience in the young lad who was about to give his idol to Jeremy? (Jefra and the jury wondered who was Jeremy?) He thought I was going to use mine. This is a fake idol by the way.”

Spencer and Tasha didn’t look too impressed.

The first vote against Woo surprised him.

When the votes against Jeremiah turned up, we heard Spencer telling him he was sorry.



Another Day, Another Trick.

Another Day, Another Trick.



While Jeremiah walked away, we saw Tony trying his bag of tricks for another day.




Jeff sent them back to camp by saying: “Another Tribal Council with another big move. Sometimes they work (Tony on screen), sometimes they don’t (Spencer), but if you want to win this game (Kass, Woo and Jefra on screen), you have to keep making them.”


Is There a Big Move Left?

Is There a Big Move Left?



(Spencer was on our screens right after Jeff said that, suggesting it was addressed to him.)

 Jeremiah said that Spencer did what he had to do by saving himself.


 The Story

 This episode really pushed forward a storyline that had been brewing all season long: Tony versus Spencer in one of the biggest mind games we’ve ever seen.  That should tell us that the one that eliminates the other should win the season because the other players are being reduced to the roles of extras. However, it doesn’t always work that way and the two could wind up killing each other.   


Who will win the war?  Up to now, Tony has won all the battles against the “inexperienced lad” and he has an idol with special powers as ultimate protection. Therefore, done deal: Tony wins … but not so fast: You can never give up in this game; you have to continue making big moves if you want to win. Tony’s road to victory implies staying the course.  Can he play the patient game?


The Characters


The Underdogs:


Tasha: She is the jury’s favorite and she would easily be the fans’ favorite if the editors had featured her more.  Even her challenge victory could have been more thrilling if we had seen her make what had to be a great recovery. Instead, we saw her stability and determination which are admirable qualities but insufficient when a shake-up is needed.  Her challenge wins and her likeability simply put a larger target on her back.  If even Jefra sees that she couldn’t beat her in the end then Tasha’s only chance is to win out the immunity challenges, an impossible task.


Spencer: The question we face is whether or not he will regret all his life the way he used his idol.  Like LJ’s and Tony’s, it was wasted and Tony was quick to laugh at his mistake but Jeremiah told us that he did what he had to do and Jeff still called it a big move. It’s as if we were meant to say that Spencer had no choice, that it wasn’t really a mistake.


From a game analysis point of view, I don’t see how Spencer can win this game and his edit could have been simply a way to recognize a good player that tried to play a good game but was countered at every step of the way.  From an editing analysis, I still have to say that it could be his game because he still can make some big moves.


They Need Bad Things to Happen

If Tony and Spencer kill each other, one of them has to win


Trish: Once more, she was shown as the voice of reason, the one that pulled the alliance back together, but that wasn’t her main role in this episode.  The role that really stood out was her total reliance on Tony.  Even when he asked her to strategize, she was more interested in gathering fruits. The “Limes and Papayas” line painted her in a really poor light as did her remark to the jury that she wasn’t aware of the plot to blindside LJ.  Then there’s Jefra’s line that the rest of the alliance believes in Tony like he was Jesus which certainly applies to Trish as much as it does to Woo.  The jury reactions tell us that Trish can’t win a vote against Tony and the editing doesn’t suggest that she will be the one making the big move to eliminate him.


Woo: The audience likes Woo a lot more than the other players. They don’t seem to respect him and they accepted Spencer’s version of events regarding the idol clue.  Like Trish, he is seen simply as one of Tony’s minions who is coasting through the game and not really deserving of the title of Sole Survivor.  He’d have to impress the jury with a big move or maybe a series of wins in challenges even if that is rarely sufficient.


Kass: She is still the most likely to target Tony but she seems content to lay back and let the game flow in her direction. Why wouldn’t she?  She is in the rare position that everyone would want to take her to the end because they would all beat her.  She should have a great case to make against most of her potential opponents but the jury reactions tells us that she will be wasting her time if she even tries to convince them to vote for her.  The way the editors keep using some of her comments out of context, remind us that she eliminated Sarah mostly because she was annoying which, according to Kass herself, means she’s screwed.  


Jefra: I hope people noticed that Jefra mentioned more than once that she felt that she was on the bottom of the alliance?  Suddenly, the one player that had never been in immediate danger, probably the only one in that situation all year long, was talking about being at the bottom and thus put herself directly in line with the season’s main theme!  Can it be? I’d scoff at the idea if it wasn’t for the camera shot we had when Jeff said “If you want to win this game” at the end of Tribal Council.  The camera suggested that Woo, Kass and Jefra could be our Final 3 and Jefra would certainly have a shot to win that vote.  She’d probably have three votes in Morgan, LJ and Jeremiah. 


This episode highlighted her dilemma and we even heard that she wants to get rid of Tony, She is the only member of her alliance to suggest such a coup d’état.  What if, somehow, she is successful? Do you see what I mean by bad things are going to happen?  Jefra: Sole survivor? Some viewers like unpredictability…


The Man in Charge


Tony: Once more, he completely dominated the game play and his feverish tempo was rewarded with his discovery of the idol.  This season, which had been compared to Tocantins, now looks like a possible repeat of Redemption Island.  If Tony is our winner then his edit could only be compared with Boston Rob’s, the guy who had more fun than anyone else playing this game.  If he is allowed to get to the end then his alliance will have behaved the same way Ometepe did with its own leader.  I still feel that Tony’s edit is more about making fun of him than showing the fun he is having though.  We heard his weird logic where: “I didn’t break a promise. I had a reason”, his unnecessary lie about working construction at the last Tribal Council and his awkward promise to Kass, but his alliance is still supporting him because they think they can beat him.


The main opportunity for another big move comes from Spencer’s revelation that he would vote for Tony in the end.  That could shake the alliance out of its deep sleep or agitate the Jersey cop into an even more frenzied pace.  



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