Another shocking Tribal Council means lots to talk about with Rob Cesternino and Stephen Fishbach live on Survivor Know It Alls!
Did Tina and Company Make The Right Call?
Kat was voted out tonight after trying to convince her alliance to turn on Monica. Stephen says this is a tough move to sort through – he thinks Vytas hasn’t made any strategic errors on his new tribe, but hasn’t established a bond with the returning players yet. Stephen does believe, though, that it was bad gameplay by Kat to try and get Monica out when Vytas was such an easy target. He says it’s a common mistake to turn on an old ally just because you’re excited to see and team up with someone new. Rob thinks this was a great move because with Tina so close to Aras, keeping Vytas ensures Tina/Katie and Aras/Vytas are the only two completely active pairs in the game and sets them up to become a very powerful foursome. Rob asks Stephen what percentage of this move can be attributed to Vytas playing well and Kat playing poorly, and Stephen believes it’s actually a 33/33/33 split: 33% for Vytas playing well, 33% for Kat playing poorly, and a surprise 33% for Monica solidifying her bonds with Tina and co. He says to not give Monica credit would be unfair, and he even convinces Rob to give her a tiny bit of credit in his own breakdown: 75% bad gameplay on Kat’s part, 20% good gameplay for Vytas, and he throws 5% to Monica. Rob wonders how much strategizing Monica was actually doing, since we didn’t really see it much on the show.
Stephen brings up Laura Boneham, asking why everyone has suddenly forgotten about her after she came very close to going home last week. He understands why you would target Kat because of her relationship with Hayden, but believes Laura B. is extremely dangerous at this point. Rob calls her a floater and he and Stephen are both shocked by how likely it seems she will make the merge. Stephen even thinks she could Sandra this game and make it all the way to the end. Rob asks how much of Kat’s attempt to get rid of Monica was an overcorrection of Kat’s game in One World. Stephen is confused because he doesn’t think she had a strategy in One World. He mentions that last season, the returning players from Survivor Redemption Island tried to emulate Boston Rob’s gameplay and it didn’t really work out for them either. Rob agrees that it’s interesting how returning players try to emulate/pick up traits from the person who won their original season, in this case, Kat and Kim Spradlin, as well as Tyson and J.T.
The returnees and their loved ones have switched tribes – the new Galang tribe is Vytas, Katie, and the returning female players, while the others make up the new Tadhana tribe. Rob points out that as often seems to happen in a tribe swap, one tribe (the new Tadhana) becomes a dominant force and the other (the new Galang) will regularly get the dodo music. Both he and Stephen thought it was funny that the new Galang kept celebrating every time they put the puzzle together incorrectly in the immunity challenge. They believe if they hadn’t stopped to do that, and if they still had Laura M. on their tribe, they might have actually won. Rob is already ready for a merge in the next episode, but Stephen wants to see one more week in these new tribes just to see where the dynamics are. Stephen thinks it’s very likely Galang is going to Tribal Council next week, and either Laura B. or Vytas will be going to Red-I. Rob says that if they go to Tribal Council, it’s 100% that Laura B. would be voted out, because it would be very foolish for Tina to want to vote out Vytas given her connection to Aras. Stephen agrees and dismisses any potential that Katie might leave, because the only reason to vote her out would be to weaken Tina and he doesn’t believe anyone is thinking about that right now.
Tyson’s Rise to Power
With this tribe swap, Rob believes Tyson is #1 in the Blood vs. Water power rankings right now. He thinks he has a good strategy of regularly taking on the role of a wingman, whether it’s for Aras, Coach, or Boston Rob. Stephen worries he will be seen as a threat at the merge, and gives him credit for recognizing that Aras will probably be the one to target him. The question the Know It Alls are asking: is he making a move too soon? Rob and Stephen both liked the way Tyson solidified his alliance with Gervase at the start of the episode by making it a dialogue rather than an order, though they’re a little confused as to how Aras actually sees Tyson at this point. Rob thought the episode was missing a confessional from Aras as to how he felt about Tyson’s joking around that Aras is controlling and selfish. Stephen points out that if Aras didn’t get it, it would be hard for a producer to suggest it to him in a confessional without giving it away, and this could be a sign that perhaps Aras didn’t see any strategy behind it and isn’t after Tyson as much as he might think. Rob and Stephen also try to break down if the numbers will be in Tyson’s favor at the merge, and once someone returns from Redemption Island.
Anchors Away: Brad Culpepper Out
Laura M. successfully eliminated Brad Culpepper on Redemption Island tonight, leading Rob to wonder if this makes Aras’ plan to vote her out last week a success. Stephen doesn’t think so, because of how pissed she was at him when being voted out, and Aras saw it on her face. Rob agrees with this, comparing the move to paying off a credit card with a loan and only replacing one problem with a different one. Stephen says Laura M. is the odds on favorite at Red-I because she has the experience, even though John Cody is quickly gaining experience in these challenges as well. Rob ranks Laura M. > John > Kat as the order in which players are likely to return to the game at this point. He and Stephen discuss Laura M.’s decision to give the clue to Vytas, and whether this was a shot at Aras. Stephen wonders why she wouldn’t just give it to Aras, as Rob points out that trying to give an idol clue to the loved one of an enemy has been a trend this season. Rob asks Stephen about a plan that Sophie Clarke tweeted about tonight, in which a player would announce they want to read the idol clue out loud, then read a fake clue and memorize the real one. Stephen says he doesn’t even know where to begin regarding how bad that plan sounds, because the potential for it to backfire is too great considering how untrustworthy it would make you.
Answering Your Questions
Will Hayden swap with Kat in next week’s truel? Is Katie the real strategic mastermind of this season? Where is Hayden’s head at going in to the next episode? Have Tina and Monica jumped ship from the guys on the old Galang tribe? And where does Rob land in the Sophie’s Choice that is Team Oddus vs. Team Tyson? Plus, Rob and Stephen rank the winners and losers of the tribe swap. These answers and more on Survivor Know It Alls!
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