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Poker Pro Jason Somerville on Reading the Players of Survivor Cagayan

Poker Pro Jason Somerville lends his Poker Knowledge to Survivor Cagayan

Poker Pro Jason Somerville lends his Poker Knowledge to Survivor Cagayan

Listen to the Podcast:

As he head down the home stretch of Survivor Cagayan, we are bringing you some additional bonus coverage with Poker Pro, Jason Somerville.  Jason is one of the rising stars in the poker world and teaches people how to play on his youtube channel.  Jason has earned a bracelet in the World Series of Poker in 2011.  Additionally, Jason is the first and only openly gay high stakes poker player.

Interview with Jason Somerville: Poker Player, ‘Caster and Survivor Expert

After being introduced to one another on twitter a few months ago, Rob welcomes Jason Somerville to the podcast.  Jason has made a career for himself in the world of poker, starting out as a high school student with a few dollars in an online poker game and transforming into someone who was won millions of dollars.  Jason’s love of strategy and online gaming led him to discover Survivor around the time of Survivor Pearl Islands.  Jason has been fascinated by this season and talks with Rob about some of this thoughts.

Jason shares the same Poker mentor as Boston Rob Mariano in Daniel Negreanu.  In addition to being one of the top stars in poker, Daniel is a longtime Survivor fan.  Daniel has met with Boston Rob in the past and also knows Jean-Robert Bellande.  Rob is curious to know Jason’s thought about Garrett Adelstein, who was another poker player who was the second player kicked off the show this season.  Jason thought it was interesting that Garrett spent over 2,000 hours preparing for Survivor.  Rob doesn’t even know how you can spend 2,000 hours preparing for Survivor and wonders if Survivor can really be prepared for.  Rob thinks that the best way to prepare for Survivor is to try and build friendships with strangers and sell them things.

Rob asks Jason if he thinks that poker players are pre-dispositioned to being good Survivor players.  Jason discusses a number of game theories including the idea of variance – which is looking at improbable events as random rather than something that was caused by the skill of the player.  In the case of Garrett it’s difficult to tell if he was a bad player or just got REALLY unlucky.

Turning specifically to Survivor Cagayan, Rob asks Jason to look at a few of the major moments in the game through the lens of a professional poker player including:

Did Kass make the correct the game more to flip at the merge?

Was Tony correct to vote out LJ at the Final 9?

Should Tony have made the move to take out Jefra at the Final 7?

How does the Tyler Perry idol impact the game?

In addition, Jason takes a look at the chances for all of the players left in the game to be the winner of the season and looks for the scenarios that will most benefit them in the final two weeks of the show.  Finally, Jason answers a number of questions that have been submitted to him from the listeners of Rob Has a Podcast.

Be sure to join us on Wednesday for the next episode of Survivor Know-It-Alls, LIVE at 9:15 pm ET with Stephen Fishbach.  Then on Thursday, Rob will talk to the latest player voted out of Survivor Cagayan followed by our full episode recap with the winner of Survivor Caramoan, John Cochran.

Show Links: – Jason Somerville on Twitch.TV – Jason’s Official Web Site – Jason’s Youtube Channel – Jason Somerville on Twitter

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Rob Cesternino is a two-time Survivor player and reality TV aficionado. Rob gives his thoughts on his favorite Reality TV shows as the host of "Rob Has a Podcast" More From Rob Cesternino »

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  • “How do you meet (Boston Rob) and not become a Survivor fan?” – I’m surprised you didn’t make a comment about that! 😉

  • chris williams

    I’m not 100% sure but I’m pretty confident that Daniel Negreanu was initially offered a spot on Survivor China but had to turn it down as the filming clashed with the WSOP.. This is another great interview, the more poker players the better imo, .generally very articulate with plenty of banter loaded up and ready to go! Definitely worth 1 poker related podcast per season if at all possible. Gary wise was another of my favourites, must have listened to that show 20 times.

    • chris williams

      Also, as far as I’m aware, Negreanu has duel citizenship so his nationality wouldn’t be a problem.

    • Mira

      Agreed! Good post, Im a big DN fan as well!

    • belinda

      As long as it’s not Garrett, who I hope is not too representative of poker players in general. He wasn’t very likable or charming or good in survivor.

    • Johnny

      Daniel Negreanu was recruited to appear on Survivor China, but the producers did not know he was Canadian. Daniel said he’s going to get his dual citizenship in the future (hopefully sooner than later).

      • chris williams

        He’s had duel citizenship for a while now… Way before China was filmed. He turned it down because he had 100’s of thousands, maybe even a lilly or two- of dollars in World Series Bracelet bets and couldn’t miss out. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the show eventually.

  • Mira

    Hi Rob! Good show! I also have a question for you, if you can take a few moments to think about it.
    What is more likely? Tony playing the second idol for someone else to “solidify” a tight twosome OR playing the normal idol for himself and telling everyone else he CAN play the special idol even in FINAL 4, and that THIS is the special power?

    • chris williams

      There’s no way the entire fire making would take much more then 10 minutes, let alone the watered down TV version… This is not Becky and Sundra we’re talking about! :p

      • Mira

        Actually, it is! Tony is the Yul, Spencer is the Ozzy, and Kass and Woo are Becky and Sundra!

    • I don’t think Tony is allowed to play the Tyler Perry idol for anybody else in the rules. I definitely could see Tony give the regular idol to Trish or Woo this week.

      • Mira

        I understand Tony can play the TP idol for himself only, so he can only give the normal idol to someone else this week, but what I was trying to say is: Can Tony play the regular idol this week and tell everyone at camp after this weeks vote like “Look, this is the Super power TP idol, which special power is that I can play it at FInal 4, so dont vote for me, if you dont want to go home”, to swindle his way into final 3? For what I saw, nobody really knows how the TP idol works, so why wouldn’t it be believable and more importantly, would you risk to go against this bluff as a player?

      • Mira

        See Rob? Told you it’s gonna happen! 😀

  • LosPollosHermanos

    Romber’s poker show was called: ‘Rob and Amber: Against the Odds’

  • ehhh

    I haven’t listened yet, but just saw this on your site and had to say OH MY GOSH YOU GOT JCARVER! I’m so excited to hear this podcast!

    • chris williams

      This is basically what I thought! It’s a good show, you’ll enjoy it! I’ve been tweeting Jason for months telling him to reach out to Rob and get his arse on here. He only replied once but I’m still taking 0.1% credit :p

  • Snazzy Bean

    Great podcast! I loved the way Jason asked you questions right back. You’re the best interviewer out there, Rob, but it’s always great to hear what you have to say too. I can’t praise this podcast enough – please bring Jason back as often as possible. Entertaining, informative, and funny.

  • Chris Devine

    Thanks for having JCARVER on the show rob!

  • Antony Gilbert

    Great guest Rob.

    When we get to BB16, can you have separate guest interview podcasts instead of including guests in with the main review shows. You, Brian and Ian ideally being the perfect line-up with everyone having roughly an equal amount of time to have their say. It annoys me when Brian gets sidelined and instead we end up with self-interested guests taking over the show.

    • Happy to hear that you enjoy the shows, Antony. Lets see what I can do. The truth is that the shows with a guest do better numbers – so maybe there’s a happy medium.

  • susan appleby

    Josh Wigler: here is a teacher for you to learn poker. You already have a poker face from your spoiler free game of thrones podcast.

  • Steven

    Garrett said he watched every season which is over 300 hours

    • damnbueno

      If that’s true, he didn’t pay any attention to it.

      • Mira

        That’s what you get when you watch the show while doing push ups!

  • Chris Devine

    Wow I just got to the end, and I’m so happy to hear that you would like to have JCARVER back in the future. I was going to lobby for this but it sounds like i don’t have to. Very top level strategy talk – Just great.

  • damnbueno

    If Garrett really did spend 2,000 hours preparing for Survivor, its no wonder he played so badly. He should have spent, oh I don’t know 5 minutes asking someone “Would you be upset if I told ordered you not to have private conversations with anyone?”

    Garrett is living proof that simply being a Pro Poker Player does NOT give you an advantage when playing Survivor.

    Survivor isn’t about game theory, its about relationships. Those with the best social skills will usually have the initial edge, as will those who are smart enough to prepare for living outdoors for a month (building fire, shelter, dealing with hunger etc.). Who cares if you know when someone is lying if you fall apart after a day of hunger? Being able to keep yourself under control is much more valuable.

    Does anyone have a listing of how Poker Players have finished when playing Survivor? I’ve got Garrett at 18th and Jean-Robert at 9th, but I don’t know how many other Poker pros have played. Boston Rob and Amber started playing Poker AFTER their Survivor appearances.

    • susan appleby

      I don’t understand why anyone would prepare for survivor without learning basic survival skills. I believe that he thought the show was all fake with food and dwellings off camera. He was worried about how he looked on camera I guess.

      It is too bad because I’m sure he isn’t a terrible person or anything. I don’t think he would have done well on brawn though. I dunno, would LJ have been a brain then? Would things have changed much? I just don’t see Garrett being prepared for Survivor.

      • damnbueno

        I don’t think Garrett is a terrible person either, he’s just terrible at Survivor.

        He did say that he wasn’t interested in Surviving in the wild and being outdoors. That made me suspect he could end up being another Osten from Pearl Islands — all muscle but no guts. I thought he was closer to quitting than anything else. He was a little whiny.

        He was interested in doing the Outwit part, but he only ended up outwitting himself, and David I guess.

    • Stephen

      Jim Rice was a poker player too. (Garrett was 17th not 18th also)

      I think that poker players struggle because poker is an individual endeavor, whereas in Survivor you need to be able to work with other people. I think a lot of the poker players come in and think they’ll be able to read everybody and they’re set.

      • damnbueno

        Good catch. Garrett just played like a last place finisher.

    • chris williams

      Albert is a pretty solid grinder too. Live cash games are his speciality, I believe.

  • Style-z

    Loved this podcast! Jason had some great questions, both at the fan level and strategic level. Definitely hope he’s on RHAP again

  • Will Holston

    Great episode. The two of you are like voice twins. Please have Jason on again, and give him my number while you are at it.

    • Mako

      yea lol got them confused at some point also, very similar vocal tonality

  • Bertinho

    Great podcast Rob. Jason was a surprisingly good guest.

  • A Fan

    Jason is very enjoyable to listen to, he makes great points and gives an interesting point of view that I haven’t really heard on RHAP before.

    Here’s what Rob mentioned in the podcast.

    • Legionwrex

      So… a final 3 is confirmed?

  • Zachary Zarnett-Klein

    Jason was great! He should come back for Voicemails some time!

  • Dave L

    Haven’t listened yet, but fail to see why Garrett has to either be a bad player or really unlucky. He made a logical choice that didn’t work. As far as 2000 hours, that’s pretty much semantics. A lot of the time according to him was based on balancing and other activities that would help in immunity challenges down the road. But they were also things that had other benefits in his life too. I’ve run over 2000 miles in preparation for my next marathon, but that doesn’t mean that’s the only reason I did it.

    What if the girls had decided to vote out Spencer instead of Garrett because Kass decided her left toe hurt that morning, and it was all the selfish college boy’s fault? Then would everybody be saying how stupid Spencer was, and how Garrett would be guaranteed a million if he made it to the end of the game? You don’t think editing would have found a reason to make Spencer look dumb? You don’t need to be really unlucky to lose this game early, but you do need to be lucky to win it. Garrett never really got a chance to show us if he was a good player or bad player… like a true poker player he went all in on Kass… how could he know how crazy bad she would turn out to be?

    • susan appleby

      Garrett was possibly the most unsuited player to attempt survivor. He gave no thought to actually surviving and came in with a body that meant he was suffering badly after a few days. He had no social game, but his personality might have been affected by lack of protein and sleep.

      Anyone there could say they would have done better on a different team. The brains tribe were humiliatingly awful.and couldn’t win a challenge a team was trying to lose. Tasha could have been brawn or beauty. Spencer and Kass were probably only going to be on brains.

      • damnbueno

        I agree.

        Its pretty silly to make excuses for someone who clearly had no insight into the social aspect of Survivor.

        Editors didn’t make Garrett look dumb. Their job didn’t begin until after he imploded. Garrett made himself look dumb. He got a chance to play Survivor — which is more than thousands can say — and promptly showed how bad he was by getting himself voted out — while he had an Idol!

        Bad luck didn’t make Garrett rub people the wrong way so easily, Garrett did.

      • Dave L

        Garrett explained this in his interview. There are 2 theories about how you go into Survivor. One is that you go in bulked up, like Penner did in his last season where he put on 30 or 40 pounds I think he said. Another is that you go in already in starvation mode, so that you don’t have adjustment issues. He modeled his physique off of Yul Kwan, who he said was already buff going in. He certainly gave thought to it, even if you don’t agree. Bulking up could have messed him up too. He didn’t get booted because of his poor social game

        He got voted out because Kass decided to change her mind, and go back to the person that had just dumped nearly their whole food supply and she was yelling about how horrible she was just a few minutes earlier. That’s why he was voted out. The rest of it is blah blah. The whole tribe was not awful…J’Tia was awful, and they did poorly in the first challenge because of a lack of food (also probably J’Tia’s fault).

        • damnbueno

          Uh, no, Garrett got voted out because:

          1) He had absolutely no idea how to deal with the social aspect of Survivor — a social game.
          2) His tribe lost the 2nd Immunity challenge — a loss he or any other Brains member might have prevented if they’d thought to look at Sarah’s puzzle and coach J’Tia through it.
          3) He tried to put Kass on the spot and publicly identify her target, which resulted in alienating someone he needed for a decisive vote. This move prompted Spencer to call Garrett an “Idiot” in confessional.
          4) He tried to assume a position of authority, and ordered people not to have private conversations. Then he was too stupid to realize Tasha, Kass and J’Tia didn’t like that move, and tried to enforce his ridiculous order, which alienated all of them.
          5) His failure to recognize how he’d alienated Tasha and Kass meant he was too stupid and/or overconfident to bring his Idol to Tribal Council with him.
          6) He made bonehead statements during Tribal Council that established he didn’t want Tasha in his current alliance, and had no intention of keeping Kass in his future plans.
          7) Kass changed her mind — after Garrett’s bonehead statements permanently alienated her.

          Blaming other players for Garrett’s removal is just plain stupid when his actions are what inspired their decisions.

          And the other challenge Garrett ran? Garrett’s physique gave him the strength to lift the chest of puzzle pieces up and over an obstacle. But his sheer stupidity caused him to push it through, letting it crash to the ground, spilling puzzle pieces all over the place, and costing the Brains a lot of time. A smarter player would have made sure someone was holding the chest steady before he pushed it through so he could lower it from the other side. Garrett’s inability to learn from this mistake caused him to do this TWICE!

          The Beauties had the same amount of food the Brains had at the first challenge. Only Trish took both bags of rice. And J’Tia didn’t dump the Brains’ rice until after the 2nd challenge loss, not after the first one.

          And when they had to rebuild their cart, the side Garrett worked on fell apart, which cost the Brains even more time.

          What you call “blah blah” is what everyone else calls “Garrett’s bonehead mistakes.”

          • Dave L

            We’ll have to agree to disagree on this one (and pretty much every other one too). I respect you feel strongly about your position, but I feel strongly about mine, not will I be convinced that just because I’m in the minority on means I’m wrong… I’ve been in the minority plenty in life and often it turned out that I was the one right.

            Garrett explained the logic behind his moves, and it makes sense to me. In life I’ve consistently scored in top 99% on any IQ logic based test, so I’m going to trust my judgment that his moves made sense. I think on a scale of 1-100 as far as making the perfect move every nanosecond on the island, the BEST Survivor players maybe hit the mid60s for playing a perfect game, and all we’ve established is that Garrett didn’t crack the 80s or 90s.

          • damnbueno

            Just like Tasha, Kass and J’Tia refused to agree with Garrett’s “No private conversations” order, I’m not agreeing with you here either.

            You can choose to believe Garrett’s post game-face saving spin all you want. But when a player claims to have had knowledge during the game that other players only gave in confessionals, I’ll call it what it is — BS.

            If Survivor winners were determined by IQ tests, you and Garrett would probably be great at the game. But Survivor winners are decided by PEOPLE — emotional people, rational people, level-headed people and whackjobs — not institutionalized tests. Social skills prevail in Survivor, and Garrett’s were horrible.

            You’re 100% wrong when you say Garrett got voted out because of Kass. GARRETT created all the conditions that led to his exit.

          • Dave L

            Dude, I don’t understand you. First you tell me never to respond to you as some promise we made to Rob or something. Then you are replying to my comment to Susan. Honestly I don’t really care, I just don’t understand what makes you change.

            I totally get what you are saying. I feel that just like in life, intellect gives you an edge, but alone it is not enough. We just disagree about why Garrett got eliminated. You feel it’s because he played a poor social game. I think sometimes sh*t happens in life, and that’s what happened to Garrett, he was put on a tribe of 6 with one person gunning for him, and 2 crazy women.

            Why don’t you give my opinion, and I’ll give mine, and neither of us has to tell the other person that they are wrong or stupid?

            Surely Garrett could have handled the situation in other ways (that might or might not have been more successful), and surely a large number close to 100% of contestants would have voted to keep him over J’Tia based on everything that went down. I just simply can’t respect your position when you ignore Kass’ poor play as even a 1% part of the equation. After a season of Kass, it’s even more obvious now that failing to get Kass to stay loyal to you is the norm and not an indicator or poor play. Kass has been abundantly clear that she will vote against her own best interest.

          • damnbueno

            I could fill an encyclopedia with things you say you don’t understand. I get a kick out of it every time I see you start a post with “I fail to see why…”

            “I just simply can’t respect your position when you ignore Kass’ poor play as even a 1% part of the equation.” — This statement shows your complete and total inability to comprehend what’s right in front of your face — just like Garrett. Please refer back to point #7 in my previous reply.

            If you want Kass (or anyone for that matter) to vote with you, you have to 1) identify what motivates her, and 2) give her a reason to believe that voting with you fits HER criteria. You also have to understand why SHE doesn’t consider anything she does to be “poor play.” Garrett did none of these.

            Trish on the other hand played Kass perfectly at the merge. Trish observed Kass and determined she 1) wanted to feel like she was in control, and 2) felt abandoned by Aparri. Trish gave Kass that feeling of control by simply asking her “Who do you want to vote out?” even though Trish already knew how badly Kass wanted Sarah gone. Then Trish gave Kass a reason to feel she’d made new allies by suggesting “You could join up with us.” Trish made Kass feel like KASS made the decisions, and held the power, when in reality Trish was using Kass as a pawn.

            Garrett simply figured Kass would obey his orders. Garrett assumed he was the idolized 4-time player Boston Rob talking to clueless 21-year old rookie Natalie. In reality he was the clueless rookie who spent too much time in his own head who was talking to the 41-year old lawyer who had no interest in following orders given by a 27-year old know-it-all.

            Why on earth should anyone vote with Garrett purely because HE wants them to? Are they working for him? Are they compelled to obey him? Garrett spent days 3-6 giving Tasha, Kass and J’Tia reasons to believe he didn’t want to work WITH them long term, but instead expected them to work FOR him. The concept of deceiving people into believing he wanted to work WITH them was completely foreign to him.

            And when Spencer called Garrett an “idiot,” that was a pretty clear sign to me that he wasn’t gonna form any long term plans with Garrett either.

            Garrett excelled at pushing people away from him. He did it with everyone on his tribe including David. That’s the primary reason why he’s an absolutely horrible Survivor player.

          • Jouni Knuutinen

            “I could fill an encyclopedia with things you say you don’t understand. I
            get a kick out of it every time I see you start a post with “I fail to
            see why…””

            There you go again, attacking Dave.

          • damnbueno

            Dave asked for it a long time ago.

            If he had any integrity, I’d never make statements like that.

          • Jouni Knuutinen

            You’ve previously claimed that you never attack anybody. I guess it’s an improvement that you don’t deny doing so here.

          • damnbueno

            Nope, the word “attack” doesn’t appear once in my previous reply.

            You’re seeing things again Jouni — just like you keep seeing a smart strategic move made by RC.

          • Jouni Knuutinen

            I said
            “There you go again, attacking Dave.”
            and you replied
            “Dave asked for it a long time ago.”

            That’s what I’m seeing.

          • damnbueno

            Like I just said, you see things that aren’t there.

          • Dave L

            In the RHAP bible thread, he’s probably saying blasphemous things against everybody named Eve, and saying that they all have it coming because the apple biting episode is still fresh in his mind.
            Quite frankly I’m shocked he responded to me directly, since he mentioned last month how Rob had threatened to kick us off the site or something if we did that (which is not actually true).

          • damnbueno

            I checked. Not a word of this reply has any truth or relevance.

            Pretty weak, even for you Dave.

          • dsharden

            But your logic seems only to be Garrett is a great player. He isn’t! He was voted out 2nd. You can continue to view your thoughts as right but Garret will still be the one who was voted out 2nd and forgotten.
            Garrett can explain his moves in a hundred of interviews, but it doesn’t change the fact he was voted out 2nd. Are you Garrett? Why would someone not Garrett spend the whole season defending him?

          • Dave L

            I don’t think Garrett is definitely a great player. I think there is no evidence that he’s a bad player, or even that he couldn’t be a great player.
            Being voted out 2nd doesn’t make him a bad player anymore than George Bush being elected president makes him a good president.

          • damnbueno

            “I don’t think Garrett is definitely a great player.” — Ahh how your story changes. Shortly after he got voted out you called him a “Top 20 overall” player, which of course means you think he’s better than at least 7 people who’ve won the game.

          • Dave L

            I might ask why would somebody would thumbs up a comment from db that offered no value except being nasty. Makes me lose any respect I have for you. Before I thought you were a little unstable. Now, I see you are also disrespectful.

            “Dave asked for it a long time ago.

            If he had any integrity, I’d never make statements like that.”

    • dsharden

      But, the girls didn’t decide to vote out Spencer, they voted out Garrett. Garret never had a chance to show us what kind of player he was because he was voted out second! He sucked at Survivor. Why do you continue to blame other who voted him out? It doesn’t matter that he didn’t know Kass was “crazy bad “. She is in final 5 and Garret is long gone.
      Who is CRAZY BAD now? Garrett.

      • Dave L

        Your two statements completely contradict each other. He can’t not have a chance to show us what kind of player he was but also suck at Survivor.
        In any case the first 20 minutes are more proof I’m right. Tony tells Kass that he wants to go with her to the final 3. That is GOOD for Kass. Her response is to talk bad about him. She has no clue about anything. She’s one of the biggest goats ever…she has less of a chance of winning than even Russell.

  • Mary Carmen

    This was a fun show!

  • David Spangenberg


  • Troy / TWD98

    Loved Jason’s enthusiasm!

  • Nick

    There is absolutely no chance Kass is wining this game. Okay, maybe if it’s Kass vs. Tony and Tony says smth like: “I support Hitler” or “I hate black people”, then yeah Kass might have a chance.

  • Travelest

    Very good interview. This guest was entertaining and insightful and the best guest in a long while. I loved the poker-centric analysis and his enthusiasm for the show. I thought the gay discussion was unnecessary and irrelevant.

  • Jouni Knuutinen

    Next time you need a substitute for Stephen for Know-It-Alls, you should ask Jason, he would be perfect for it.

  • Natalie Franklin

    I really enjoyed this! It’s nice to hear from someone reality TV-adjacent that really knows what they’re talking about, and is a really interesting person.

    Thanks, Rob!

  • finsburysghost

    Great stuff.

  • Omar Gonzalez

    I can think of at least one time when the jury didn’t necessarily vote for the finalist of whom they were most fond. In Cook Islands Adam voted for Yul solely because of a deal they had made; otherwise, he would’ve voted for Ozzy, who then would’ve won the jury vote 5-4.

    And in Season 1, when Rudy voted for Richard he explained, “I made an alliance to the end; and I’m fulfilling my obligation.” If he had voted for Kelly, she would’ve won 4-3. (But maybe he was equally indifferent towards both of them.)

    • damnbueno

      That’s part of the social game. You have to be able to identify what each juror’s voting criteria will be. You’re in much better shape if you can do that BEFORE they’re sent to the Ponderosa.

      Yul was smart enough to start lining up jury votes at the first members swap. He made the same deal with Parvati that he made with Adam. Parvati just broke her word.

      I think Richard knew Rudy put a high value on integrity. Its how Rich knew he’d get Rudy’s jury vote, and its also why he knew Rudy would take Rich to the finals if he’d won the final 3 challenge.

  • Marcus

    Just wanted to say that this was a great interview and these sort of guest experiments (like with that YouTuber over the summer for BB15) are awesome.

  • Chad Holloway

    I’m a big poker guy and a huge Survivor fan, so to have this combo was great. One of my favorite podcasts as of late. Definitely hope to see Jason on RHAPC more.

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